How simulation models help to plan production systems reliably despite staff shortages
The shortage of skilled workers is having a noticeable impact on production and logistics. At the same time, demographic change means that experienced staff will be leaving many companies in the coming years. This presents a new challenge for production planning, logistics and industrial engineering: processes must be planned not only efficiently, but also to be resilient to staff shortages.
Many production systems only function reliably today because experienced staff compensate for missing standards, short-term problems or process weaknesses in day-to-day operations. If this knowledge is lost or fewer staff are available, bottlenecks, delays and increasing workloads quickly arise.
This is precisely where simulation comes into its own.
This is because modern simulation models do not merely consider machines, material flows or cycle times. They also make it possible to realistically incorporate the human factor into planning.
Why traditional planning often reaches its limits
In many projects, staffing is still viewed as a fixed factor. Planning frequently assumes full availability:
- full shift coverage
- permanently available skills
- low absenteeism rates
The reality is usually quite different.
Last-minute sick leave, unfilled positions or a lack of specialist knowledge have a direct impact on production output and process stability. The situation becomes particularly critical when individual staff members take on key tasks and there are hardly any stand-ins available.
Simulation helps to highlight these risks even before production begins.
Realistically simulating staff availability
An important step is the realistic mapping of shift models and staff availability. Instead of planning based on theoretical full staffing, companies can simulate various scenarios:
- reduced shift staffing
- absenteeism
- break regulations
- different qualifications
- seasonal fluctuations
This reveals at an early stage which areas are particularly vulnerable to staff absences.
So-called multiple qualifications can also be analysed in a targeted manner. Companies can assess how many flexibly deployable staff are needed to safeguard critical stations or absorb bottlenecks.
This transparency is becoming increasingly important, particularly as staff availability becomes more uncertain.
Assess ergonomics and workload at an early stage
Demographic change is altering not only the number of available staff but also the requirements for ergonomic workstations.
Long walking distances, high cycle rates or inefficient workflows often lead to additional strain. These problems often remain hidden in traditional planning documents.
Simulation, on the other hand, enables a significantly more realistic assessment:
- How far do employees move per shift?
- Where do ergonomic strain peaks occur?
- Which workstations are particularly critical?
- How do changes in cycle times affect strain levels?
- What impact do additional walking times have?
- Where do unnecessary manual tasks arise?
This allows processes to be adapted at an early stage, before health risks or productivity losses arise.
Better coordination between people and automation
Many companies are responding to the skills shortage with automation. However, not every automation measure automatically improves the overall process.
Simulation helps to assess the following in a targeted manner:
- where partial automation makes sense
- where assistance systems actually reduce the workload
- how handover between humans and machines works
- what impact new technologies have on material flow
Assistance systems such as pick-by-light or lifting aids can also be assessed via simulation before investments are made.
This leads to more informed decisions rather than purely theoretical assumptions.
Testing worst-case scenarios without risk
A major advantage of simulation is the ability to test critical situations without risk.
For example, companies can analyse:
- What happens with only 70 per cent of the shift staff present?
- What are the effects of multiple simultaneous absences?
- Where do bottlenecks arise first?
- Which areas remain stable?
These scenarios are virtually impossible to test during ongoing operations, but are possible at any time in simulation.
This form of safeguard is becoming increasingly important, particularly in the face of uncertain staffing conditions.
Securing knowledge for the long term
Another key issue is the loss of experiential knowledge. Many processes today are heavily dependent on specific individuals. When experienced staff leave, problems often arise regarding induction, stability and process reliability.
Simulation can help make processes more transparent and easier to manage:
- clearer material flows
- more comprehensible processes
- reduced complexity
- better training opportunities
As a result, production systems remain more stable even with changing staff.
Demographic change is permanently altering production systems
The shortage of skilled workers is not a short-term phase. Demographic change will alter production and logistics in the long term.
Companies must therefore plan processes more robustly and take greater account of staffing risks than before.
Simulation provides an important basis for this. It helps to realistically assess staff availability, ergonomics, qualifications and process stability at an early stage and to make well-informed decisions.
This results in production systems that not only operate efficiently but also function stably under difficult staffing conditions.
